Independent insights
for the digital assets investor

• ETF trend reverses, but institutional flows remain weak – Bitcoin sees first outflows in two weeks, while Ethereum breaks its five-week outflow streak.
• Tariff uncertainty weighs on digital assets – Trump's shifting stance on trade policy adds volatility risk.
• Market rebounds from recent dip – Bitcoin recovers to $83K, but momentum remains fragile.

ETF netflows reversed course this week, but institutional conviction remains uncertain. Ethereum, which had seen five consecutive weeks of outflows, recorded two straight days of inflows totaling $11M.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin experienced its first two days of outflows in over two weeks, losing $164M. With these diverging flows and relatively low volumes, institutional investors are not yet providing strong support or driving volatility.

Tomorrow’s anticipated “Liberation Day” speech from U.S. President Donald Trump is a key risk event. His rhetoric has been unpredictable—oscillating between threats of massive tariffs and promises of measured, reciprocal trade policies. Given this uncertainty, we expect elevated volatility, with a potential downside risk if market expectations are disappointed.

Outlook and Positioning

Our Friday call to de-risk ahead of Core PCE data and tariff uncertainty proved correct, as Bitcoin briefly dropped below $81,500 before rebounding to $83,000 today. Meanwhile, Solana and Ethereum saw sharper declines, down 10% and 12.5%, respectively.

With momentum in the rebound appearing weak and macro risks persisting, we maintain our defensive stance:

• Overweight Bitcoin – Demonstrating resilience amid macro uncertainty.
• Neutral Solana – High upside potential but exposed to volatility.
• Underweight Ethereum – Continued underperformance with no clear reversal signals.

Until tariff uncertainty clears, we recommend staying cautious with low overall exposure to digital assets.