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LTH spending spike: Long-term holders (LTH) sold off 97k BTC on Friday, representing the largest one-day LTH move this year. This sell-off was concentrated in 1–2 year old holders, 6–12 month old holders, and 3–5 year old holders, which represent a key source of recent supply.
Price action: BTC is consolidating near $108–$110K, facing resistance at $111.6K / $113.6K and support at $107.4K. Heavy liquidations clustered around ~$109.5K last week.
Macro & geo risk: Escalation in Israel/Gaza and renewed Russia–Ukraine energy strikes raise risk premium, which could result in headline-sensitive volatility.
Action bias: Reduce leverage, favor staggered entries and defensive sizing; watch whether BTC holds $107.4K and whether ETF flows resume after Labour Day to absorb long-term holders selling.
Geopolitical tensions (Israel/Gaza escalation and Russia–Ukraine energy attacks) have increased global risk premiums and could push energy prices and USD volatility higher. Macro headlines such as labor data this week remain the primary determinants of sustained risk appetite.
ETF backdrop: Late August inflows into BTC/ETH ETFs worth $1.5 billion restored a short-term bid; however, the 30-day net had been negative before that stabilization. ETF flow quality will determine the market’s ability to absorb large LTH sells.
Corporate/treasury bids: Select corporates and treasuries continue to add to holdings with Metaplanet adding 1,009 BTC to raise total holdings to 20,000 BTC. This strengthens structural buyers, but LTH supply can swamp that demand if selling persists.
LTH spending: Friday’s ~97k BTC came largely from 1–2y (~34.5k), 6–12m (~16.6k), and 3–5y (~16k) cohorts, accounting for 70% of that day’s LTH sells. The smoothed 14-day LTH spending ticked higher but remains below the Oct–Nov 2024 peaks.
Network/activity: Spot CVD and active addresses softened, while BTC active addresses and transfer volumes have cooled, which is typical of distribution phases.
Derivatives: Last week’s heavy liquidations and concentrated liquidation clusters around ~$109.5K highlight fragile front-end positioning. Options skew and IV show elevated tail-hedging demand.
BTC’s short-term structure is two-way and headline-sensitive. The market is testing whether late-August ETF inflows and selective treasury buys can offset accelerated LTH distribution. Confirmation of renewed institutional absorption (ETF/treasuries) is necessary before increasing directional size.
September begins with a market in distribution: a concentrated LTH sell day has raised the supply bar even as inflows and treasury bids try to absorb it. Geopolitical shocks and high-profile token launches such as the upcoming Trump-backed WLFI add tactical volatility. Maintain low leverage, stagger entries, and let ETF/treasuries flow quality and BTC’s ability to defend $107.4K – $110K guide incremental position changes.
