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Media

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May 16th, 2025

Bitcoin Leads the Rebound - Why Our Analysis Shows an Incoming Decline

Key Takeaways:

  • ETF inflows decline sharply, suggesting slowing institutional demand.
  • Bitcoin outperforms in rebound; altcoins lag.
  • Technical signals suggest local top forming; short-term correction likely.

After a brief dip, the crypto market rebounded modestly, with Bitcoin leading the move higher. BTC climbed to $104,000 (+1.7%), clearly outpacing Ethereum ($2,600, +0.9%) and Solana, which slipped slightly to $172.5 (-0.4%). The uneven recovery highlights that altseason may be on hold, while BTC consolidates its strength at higher levels.

ETF inflows continue to fade. Bitcoin saw only $115M in net inflows yesterday, while Ethereum posted $40M in outflows – a significant reversal given last week’s surge. Despite this, trading volume remains elevated, indicating that interest from institutional players is still present, even if directional conviction is weakening.

From a technical standpoint, momentum has been fading for the past eight sessions. Stochastic RSI printed a mild sell signal, suggesting a potential short-term correction. The market appears overbought, but without strong reversal signals. As institutional activity typically drops over the weekend, the risk of a drift lower increases.

We’re adjusting our positioning by locking in some altcoin gains and rotating further into Bitcoin, which remains supported by strong institutional flows. A short-term correction could create a new accumulation range before any attempt at fresh highs.

Positioning:

  • Cash: 30%
  • BTC: 55% – Reinforced position; resilient vs. altcoins
  • ETH: 10% – Still near local highs; could retrace
  • SOL: 5% – Reduced exposure after recent strength
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