Executive summary

Bitcoin enters the new week with its strongest technical and flow backdrop in months. From May 4 to May 8, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $623 million in net inflows, marking a sixth consecutive week of inflows, while Ethereum, XRP and Solana ETFs also finished positive in an all-green week for crypto funds. More importantly, Bitcoin has reclaimed two critical on-chain levels: the True Market Mean at $78.2K and the short-term holder cost basis at $79.1K. Holding above them suggests the recent deep-value phase may have been short-lived, with $85.2K now the next major resistance. However, the rally is not yet super clean. Realized losses remain elevated, long-term holders are taking profits, and derivatives positioning is stretched. Yet institutional demand has returned, shorts remain trapped, and regulatory momentum is building ahead of the Clarity Act vote on May 14. The market is no longer simply recovering. It is testing whether this recovery can become a trend.

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