Bitcoin Holds Near $65K as ETF Demand Cools, Ethereum Staking Gains Momentum

Crypto enters the new week with Bitcoin still standing, though the market’s leadership has quietly shifted. From July 20 to July 24, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $34 million in net inflows after a mixed week of three inflow days and two outflow days, while Ethereum ETFs attracted $104 million, roughly three times Bitcoin’s net intake. Bitcoin ETFs also logged seven consecutive days of inflows from July 14 to July 22, their longest streak since early May, pushing cumulative inflows since launch to $51.8 billion. 

The spot price is near $64,670, with Ethereum around $1,915. Bitcoin’s next test is still mechanical: hold the new short-term buyer base around $62K–$65K and break the $66K decision zone, then work toward the short-term holder cost basis near $69.5K. Macro risk is rising again around the Fed, PCE inflation, mega-cap earnings and the paused U.S.-Iran strike scenario. The tape has improved, but it is still suspectible to volatile shocks.

Bitcoin’s ETF recovery survived another week. Barely.

The $34 million inflow was positive, yet modest compared with the prior week’s stronger reversal. That matters because the market is now judging the ETF channel by persistence, not surprise. After May and June’s heavy outflows, July’s repair phase has brought relief, but institutional demand is still cautious.

Ethereum had the cleaner week. Spot ETH ETFs drew $104 million, while BitMine added 7,430 ETH, lifting holdings to 5.78 million ETH, or about 4.8% of total supply. The company has staked 4.92 million ETH, representing roughly 85% of holdings, and repurchased 5.5 million shares at an average price of $15.62.

That is one of the clearest value-capture stories in crypto right now: Ethereum exposure is being framed through staking income, treasury concentration and ETF access, while Bitcoin remains anchored to macro liquidity and ETF flow direction.

SOL ETFs added $7.2 million, XRP drew $8.15 million, and HYPE recorded a second straight weekly outflow at $8.6 million. The HYPE reversal does not erase the broader exchange-infrastructure thesis. It does show investors are becoming more selective after a strong run.

The macro calendar has moved back to the center of the trade.

U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 187,000 for the week ended July 18, down 22,000 from the prior week’s revised level, according to the Labor Department. That is an unusually strong labor-market print, well below expectations and difficult to reconcile with a rapid easing cycle. 

The new week brings the Fed. The Federal Reserve’s policy calendar shows the July FOMC decision falls in the coming week, with markets focused on whether Chair Kevin Warsh leans into inflation risk or acknowledges the recent improvement in price data.

The oil shock adds another layer. President Trump reportedly paused planned strikes on Iran after talks mediated by Oman over the Strait of Hormuz resumed. Bitcoin rallied through the macro scare, a meaningful signal after months in which almost every adverse headline met immediate selling. A market that absorbs bad news is usually telling investors the marginal seller is less dominant.

Still, the week ahead is heavy. July consumer confidence arrives Tuesday, the Fed decision and Microsoft and Meta earnings land Wednesday, PCE inflation and Apple and Amazon earnings arrive Thursday, while Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations close the week on Friday. BEA’s release calendar shows June Personal Income and Outlays, which includes PCE inflation, due July 30.

Strategy is still the largest Bitcoin balance-sheet story, but its behavior has changed.

The company sold 2.73 million MSTR shares for $263.5 million between July 13 and July 19 and made no Bitcoin purchases. Holdings remained at 843,775 BTC, acquired for $63.69 billion at an average price of $75,476. Its dollar reserve rose to $3.225 billion.

Management is now emphasizing resilience. Corporate Treasurer Chaitanya Jain said Strategy’s Bitcoin reserve could cover roughly 31 years of dividends, while its dollar reserve could cover about 1.8 years. Saylor’s new MSTR-BTC dashboard shows gross reserve and net reserve metrics, an mNAV near 1.00x, and year-to-date BTC Yield of 5.8%.

The message is deliberate: Strategy wants the market to view it as a structured Bitcoin credit vehicle, not a one-dimensional buyer.

That matters because other treasury stories look less durable. MARA CEO Fred Thiel said AI data centers generate much more revenue per unit of electricity than Bitcoin mining, while emphasizing that MARA treats BTC as cash management rather than a digital asset treasury strategy. Hut 8 and IREN reinforced the same direction this week, with Hut 8 signing a second 15-year AI data-center lease worth $9.8 billion and IREN securing $2.8 billion in new AI cloud contracts.

The mining equity trade is becoming an energy-and-AI infrastructure trade with Bitcoin optionality.

Stablecoin flows were more ambiguous.

Binance and Bybit saw a combined $2.3 billion decline in stablecoin reserves over 30 days, according to CryptoQuant data cited in the market notes. Some of that may reflect MiCA-related migration in Europe, weaker fresh inflows, self-custody, or movement into on-chain yield products. The destination is not fully clear.

At the same time, policy momentum improved. President Trump reportedly agreed to an ethics provision in the CLARITY Act, removing a major hurdle for the market-structure bill. The provision would limit federal officials from profiting from digital assets while in office. The Senate deadline in early August now becomes a live catalyst.

Vietnam also moved toward stricter perimeter control with fines of up to VND 50 million, or around $1,900, for users trading on unlicensed crypto platforms, with higher penalties for unauthorized offerings and AML violations. The decree takes effect Sept. 1.

Kazakhstan moved in the other direction: strategic industrial adoption. Its new digital mining rules give qualifying miners electricity quotas while requiring part of mined digital assets to be transferred to Astana Hub for a state-backed strategic crypto reserve.

The regulatory map is fragmenting. Some markets are licensing access. Others are building reserves. Others are penalizing off-platform trading.

Grayscale plans to amend the trust agreements for its Ethereum and Solana staking ETFs, allowing staking rewards to be converted into cash and distributed to shareholders at least quarterly after fees. The change could take effect as early as August 7.

That is a significant product shift. ETH and SOL funds are moving closer to income-bearing crypto exposure. ETHE previously distributed about $9.39 million, or roughly $0.083 per share, from staking rewards accrued between October and December 2025.

This is where Ethereum’s relative case gets interesting. Bitcoin remains the scarcity asset. Ethereum is increasingly becoming the institutional staking-yield asset. With BitMine staking 85% of its holdings and ETF products exploring cash distributions, ETH’s value capture is getting easier for traditional allocators to model.

Bitcoin’s onchain setup is constructive, with one caveat.

The spot price near $64.9K remains below key models: Active Investors Mean at $83.5K, True Market Mean at $76.2K, and short-term holder cost basis at $69.5K. It remains above realized price near $52.9K. That places BTC in a recovery zone, still below the levels that confirm full trend repair.

Long-term holder accumulation just printed its strongest reading in six years. LTH Net Position Change reached 1.29 million BTC over 30 days on May 24, exceeding even the August 2017 record. Strong hands were buying when the market was weakest.

The short-term holder cost-basis heatmap shows fresh supply rotating into buyers between $62K and $65K during the rally from $57K. That area can now act as support. It can also become trapped supply if price fails to break higher.

The line is $66K. A convincing close above it opens the path toward $69K–$69.5K. Failure keeps Bitcoin in a fragile range.

The base case is consolidation with upside optionality.

Bitcoin needs to defend $62K–$65K, then prove demand above $66K. Ethereum can continue outperforming if staking-income narratives and ETF inflows persist. SOL and XRP remain tactical allocation trades. HYPE needs to stabilize after two weeks of outflows.

Macro will decide the volatility window. A steady Fed, healthy PCE and strong mega-cap earnings would support another test of resistance. A hawkish Fed message, hotter inflation or renewed oil stress would likely push capital back toward cash and stablecoins.

The market is better than it was in June. It is still under confirmation.

Crypto’s July recovery is narrowing into a quality trade.

Bitcoin has regained flow support, but Ethereum is showing stronger institutional demand. Stablecoins remain the payments and settlement rail. Crypto miners are being repriced as AI-power infrastructure. Regulation is becoming a jurisdictional competition rather than a single U.S. story.

Stay constructive, but selective: Bitcoin becomes more attractive on a clean break above $66K and stronger still above the $69.5K short-term holder cost basis. Ethereum deserves rising allocation if staking rewards become distributable cash flow through ETFs and treasury structures. The best risk-adjusted opportunities are no longer broad beta; they are assets and equities with visible flows, yield, infrastructure value capture and regulatory alignment.