Bitcoin

The Week That Could Break Bitcoin's Stalemate, Or Deepen It

With ETF sentiment deteriorating and macro data looming, Bitcoin faces a narrow path higher and a wide-open downside.

From Halvings to Liquidity: Rethinking Bitcoin Timing in an Institutional Market

Bitcoin is no longer behaving like a reflexive, retail-driven cycle asset anchored to its four-year halving rhythm. Recent data shows a structural shift: ETF flows have oscillated between inflows and outflows week-to-week, derivatives positioning remains dominant with persistent negative funding, and macro variables such as energy prices, interestrates, and geopolitical risk are now primary drivers of price action.

Bitcoin Increasingly Likely to Flip in Recent Inverse Correlation with Gold

• BTCUSD’s recent inverse correlation with Gold (on a weekly chart) is at the lowest level of its 5 year range, suggesting any deeper healthy consolidation in Gold this week could initially act as a drag on BTCUSD but by May would have less impact.• US Treasuries remain vulnerable as despite bouncing most of this past week, arejust above a major uptrend/triangle support line that began Oct 2023, which ifbreached in coming months, would complete a 1.5 year plus Bear Flagconsolidation and suggest elevated risk to the US financial system.

Bitcoin Wed-Sat Bounce Increasingly Fatigued

• BTCUSD’s Wed-Sat bounce is increasingly at risk of further unwinding in the next few weeks with continued fragility in the US Dollar.• Counterintuitively for some, Bitcoin does not always correlate negatively with the US Dollar, where if the US Dollar ends a major bull market going back to September 2011, it could further heighten fears for risk off selling where even Bitcoin sells off strongly. The big question is when Bitcoin will step up to being a store of value.

Bitcoin Firms as US Dollar Further Weakens

BTCUSD is catching its breath after bouncing from last Wednesday’s low. Bitcoin will be viewed increasingly as a safe haven with each major strong selloff in US Treasuries and the US Dollar. With last week’s US Treasuries and US Dollar selloff, BTCUSD traded less like a risky asset and more as a store of value.

BTCUSD Tries Ending Volatile Week Above 80K on Further Short Covering

• BTCUSD is trying to close the week on a positive note after Wednesday’s relief rally on a welcome development around US tariffs.- US Treasuries remain fragile with this week’s steep losses reflecting systemic risks that if left unchecked, may by 2026 cascade across all financial markets given the

Institutional Bitcoin Exposure: Why Strategy's (MSTR) Risk-Reward Profile May Not Stack Up

Runes Fever: Will Bitcoin's New Token Standard Live Up to the Hype?

With the launch of Runes coinciding with Bitcoin's fourth halving today, expectations are high that the new token standard could bring more efficiency and scalability on Bitcoin.

BTC, ETH Could Flush to Next Support Levels Post-FOMC Meeting Minutes

BTCUSD closer than ETHUSD to key support levels, with both potentially seeing short-covering in the day or so after highly anticipated FOMC Meeting Minutes. Any further bear extension in the day following the FOMC Meeting Minutes likely to reverse by Thursday with the US CPI and even more so by Friday with the USPPI, with any emergency Fed cut providing a longer bounce.